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Wall Street Beat: Market Rally, Tablet Excitement Lifts IT

Tech stocks rose along with major indexes this week as central banks came up with a plan to ease market fears about European sovereign debt, and as key IT players including Microsoft, Intel, and Cisco held conferences for developers, users and analysts.

Tech stocks have been depressed through most of the third quarter, weighed down by fear that a sputtering recovery would short-circuit IT spending. The possibility that one or more countries in Europe would default on debt obligations, disrupting the financial sector throughout the world, compounded those concerns.

"The odds of a double-dip U.S. recession continue to rise and are raising fear that sales prospects will deteriorate further," said Bryan Lewis, research vice president at Gartner in a report on the semiconductor market this week. "Gartner is closely monitoring IT and consumer sales trends for any significant signs of weakness."

In a separate report, IDC noted that PC sales have been tepid. PC sales rose just 2.7 percent in the second quarter of 2011 from the year-earlier period, compared to a forecast of 2.9 percent growth. For the full year, IDC expects worldwide PC shipments to increase by just 2.8 percent, a downward revision from the previous forecast of 4.2 percent.

"In these tight economic times, and with new and competing products for consumers and businesses to spend money on, PC growth will remain slow in the next couple quarter," said Loren Loverde, vice president of IDC's Worldwide Consumer Trackers.

This week, however, a consensus among central banks on how to deal with the sovereign debt crisis emerged, calming fears of market watchers. On Thursday the U.S. Federal Reserve along with the European Central Bank and three other central banks agreed to supply loans to financial institutions with exposure to Greek debt.

The news sparked a market rally, lifting shares of IT companies. Computer companies on the Nasdaq closed Thursday flat for the year. Just Wednesday, Nasdaq computer stocks were down 1.67 percent for the year, and earlier in the quarter they had been down about 5 percent for the year.

The rally continued Friday morning, with Nasdaq computer stocks up 9.24 percent for the day by midday.

Conferences held this week by major IT vendors also played a part in boosting confidence.

For example, Cisco on Tuesday presented a plan to focus on core businesses and streamline management, about a month after reporting that profit dropped by a third, year over year, in its latest fiscal quarter. CEO John Chambers also put to rest rumors that he would be stepping down.

The company has cut its long-held view that it could generate 12 percent to 17 percent annual sales increases, adjusting expectations to 7 percent to 8 percent. Nevertheless, the management shakeup and new focus appears to have assuaged investors.

Elsewhere this week, vendors jumped on the tablet bandwagon. Even as growth in the PC market slows, tablets are taking off. Gartner said this week that global semiconductor sales have slowed, with the market due to decline slightly from last year.

"Three key factors are shaping the short-term outlook: excess inventory, manufacturing overcapacity and slowing demand due to economic weakness," said Gartner's Lewis.

However, increasing user takeup of smartphones and tablets are making NAND flash memory and data processing ASICs the fastest-growing areas for components in 2011, with about a 20 percent increase in sales, Gartner said.

At its BUILD conference for developers, Microsoft pitched Windows 8, making a big play for the tablet market with the upcoming OS' ability to run on ARM processors. ARM processors dominate the tablet market.

Intel, at its Intel Developers Forum, also made a push for the tablet market, showing off devices running on its Atom chip.

Tech investors took heart, boosting vendor share prices. Microsoft shares, closing at US$25.74 last Friday, rose throughout the week, jumping again Friday morning by $0.14 to $27.13. Cisco shares rose from $15.82 at the end of last week to $16.62 Friday morning, while Intel shares increased from $19.70 to $21.84 over the same period.

The rising tide has not lifted all boats, however, as Research in Motion shares plunged Friday, dropping $5.52 to $24.32 in late morning trading. RIM, reporting earnings Thursday, said shipments of its PlayBook tablet declined by half during its second quarter, as overall revenue dropped. Revenue was $4.2 billion, down 10 percent year-over-year, it reported.

RIM was blasted at the launch of the PlayBook for coming out with a first version that did not have crucial features such as enterprise email built in to the device itself. Though the tablet market is providing a respite from bad news in the hardware market, current market conditions, in which IT buyers are cautious, apparently do not leave much room for vendor error.


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Amazon's 7-Inch Tablet Reportedly $250; Could Challenge iPad

 It sports one touch screen, looks similar to a Rim PlayBook, and it has no physical buttons on the top of device. Also it comes in a bargain cost.

Yes, reviews TechCrunch’s MG Siegler, gossips of Amazon . com creating a full-fledged tablet device are true.

It’s known as the Amazon . com Kindle but differs using their company Kindles. Siegler states he really used the look verification version from the 7-inch tablet, that is due for release in the finish of November and will also be listed at just $250.

In the competitive cost and thinking about Amazon’s insightful content, the brand new device could diminish other manufacturers’ tablet sales -- possibly even Apple’s.

Amazon . com built the operating-system on the top of some version of Android just before 2.2, effectively forking Google’s OS to construct its version for that Kindle.

Amazon . com has deeply integrated its services within this new tablet having a Kindle application for reading through books, Amazon’s Cloud Player for music, Amazon’s Instant Video player for watching movies, and Amazon’s Android Appstore (not Google’s Android Market). Additionally, it includes a Internet browser and Search is placed as default.

Siegler thinks it runs on one-core nick and just has 6 GB of internal storage. The first version from the device is going to be Wi-fi compatability-only and it has a micro-USB port and loudspeakers, but no camera.

The truly large news may be the cost.

It'll contend with the similarly listed Barnes &amplifier Noble Nook Color, although Amazon . com is going to be sweetening the offer giving purchasers a totally free subscription to Amazon . com Prime. The service costs $79 annually and provides customers free limitless two-day shipping, no minimum purchases free of charge shipping, and use of Amazon’s Instant Video service.

Amazon . com intends to to produce more costly 10-inch tablet at the begining of 2012 while ongoing to market its existing e-ink-based Kindles alongside the brand new versions.

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Tablet War Is Heating Up...for Second Place

New tablets are being unveiled and launched at a dizzying pace. If the rate of new tablets being introduced was an effective measure of the tablet market, everyone would have two of the devices already and be shopping for a third. The feverish pace of tablets isn't an indication of the tablet market as a whole, though--just a sign that the race for second place is in high gear.


Just in the past couple of weeks we have seen demand for the HP TouchPad reach Cabbage Patch doll Black Friday levels, Lenovo quietly unveil a sub-$200 tablet, and details emerge about the mythic upcoming Amazon tablet.


The tablet war is in full swing, but there is still no real competition for the iPad.In a matter of less than two months, HP went from launching the TouchPad with grandiose claims of going head to head with the Apple iPad to pulling the plug on the device and getting out of the tablet business entirely. HP simply could not sell the device when priced the same as its Apple iPad 2 rival.


In fact, even with a price drop to $400 few were convinced. When there was a temporary weekend rebate to $300 there was tepid interest, but still not very impressive. But, when HP cleared out the inventory at $99 after killing the tablet it sold them all in a matter of hours.


So, is that it? Is the answer to the tablet war competition to simply race to the bottom and undercut price?


If so, it's game time! Lenovo revealed details of the IdeaPad Tablet A1 this week. The 7-inch tablet is not the greatest or fastest tablet out there, but at $199 it offers enough features and capabilities to at least make a compelling case.


Then, there's Amazon. It has been rumored all year that Amazon is developing its own Android tablet, and many pundits have put their money on Amazon as the tablet competitor finally worthy of going toe to toe with the Apple iPad.


Thanks to MG Siegler of TechCrunch, we have a firsthand account of a Kindle tablet pre-production prototype. Siegler says the 7-inch device runs a proprietary Amazon fork of the Android operating system, and is expected to retail at $250. For all of the hype and expectations, though, this device sounds like it is designed to go head to head with the Nook Color 2, not the iPad 2.


Amazon may sell 5 million of them, but I am not sure it will dent iPad 2 sales. The people who will buy the new Amazon Kindle Android tablet probably already own an iPad. In my house we have an original iPad, and an iPad 2, and a second-generation Kindle, and a third-generation Kindle because the iPad and the Kindle are both great devices that have some minor overlap, but don't directly compete with one another.


The reality is that the iPad has no competition right now. All of these rivals are in a cage match to the death...for second place. They can launch new tablets every other week and have cutthroat price wars with each other. While these tablet competitors "ship" hundreds of thousands or millions of tablets, actual sales are in the thousands--tens of thousands for a "great" tablet.


Meanwhile, analysts estimate that Apple will sell roughly 45 million iPads (including both the original iPad and the iPad 2) in 2011. Not "ship", sell. Apple isn't slashing its price or offering rebates either. Apple can barely produce the tablets fast enough to keep up with demand, while the rest of the tablet field is engaged in a vicious battle for a fraction of the market that represents a drop in the bucket to Apple.


I am still holding out some hope for Amazon. I am hoping that the rumored 10-inch model is more tablet and less Kindle, and offers a better rival for the iPad.


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Asus Eee Pad Transformer Tablet, $349

The Asus Eee Pad Transformer has a 10.1-inch screen and runs on Android 3.0 (Honeycomb). Our reviewer called it "an attractive choice," but gave it 3.5 out of 5 stars because she was concerned about its durability and she would have preferred more ports. The extra-cost Mobile Docking Station adds a keyboard and more ports, and turns the tablet into a little netbook. The 16GB Asus Eee Pad Transformer usually sells for about $400, but Walmart.com has it for only $349, with 97-cent shipping.

For hot tech bargains in your inbox every week, subscribe to the PCWorld Bargain Bulletin newsletter.


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